India’s telecom tariffs could rise another 12–15% over the next four to five months, according to a new Centrum Institutional Research report. The projection reflects a more favourable pricing environment after industry consolidation, but it does not represent a confirmed tariff hike announcement from Reliance Jio, Bharti Airtel or Vodafone Idea.
Centrum expects another round of tariff increases
Centrum Institutional Research expects the Indian telecom industry to see another 12–15% tariff increase over the next four to five months. The brokerage said the pricing environment has become more favourable with the market now effectively consisting of three major private operators alongside BSNL.
The latest projection is significant because the report comes at a time when operators are continuing to focus on improving average revenue per user, or ARPU. However, the report is an analyst forecast rather than an announcement from the telecom companies themselves.
Jio, Airtel and Vi could see ARPU growth
The Centrum report expects Reliance Jio, Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea to record sequential ARPU growth in the second quarter of FY27. It estimates ARPU growth of around 0.8–2.0% quarter-on-quarter, with subscriber migration from 2G to 4G and 5G, postpaid additions and the higher number of days in the quarter supporting the improvement.
For Jio, Centrum expects around 8 million subscriber additions during the quarter and ARPU growth of about 1% sequentially to Rs 218. Airtel is projected to add around 3 million subscribers, with ARPU rising about 2% to Rs 269, while Vodafone Idea is expected to add around 1 million customers with ARPU increasing about 0.8% to Rs 178. These are Centrum’s estimates, not company guidance.
Why another tariff hike is being projected
The brokerage’s argument centres on the changed competitive structure of India’s telecom market. With fewer major private operators, Centrum believes the pricing environment is more conducive to tariff increases than it was when competition was more fragmented.
Continued growth in 4G and 5G usage is another factor supporting higher ARPU expectations. Jio and Airtel are also seeing traction in fixed wireless access and fixed broadband, according to the report, while Vodafone Idea’s network expansion and fundraising plans remain important factors for its outlook.
No tariff hike has been announced by Jio, Airtel or Vi
For consumers, the most important point is that there is no confirmed 12–15% industry-wide tariff revision in the latest report. Centrum is projecting what could happen over the coming four to five months; it is not reporting a decision by Jio, Airtel or Vi to increase recharge prices by that amount.
That distinction matters because similar tariff-hike projections have appeared earlier in 2026. A July Centrum preview, for example, had also estimated a 12–15% increase over three to four months, showing that the current report should be treated as an updated analyst expectation rather than evidence that an industry-wide hike is imminent on a specific date.
What it could mean for mobile users
If operators eventually implement a broad tariff revision of the magnitude projected by Centrum, prepaid and postpaid customers could see higher costs across popular recharge categories. The actual impact, however, would depend on how each operator restructures its plans, including pricing, validity, data allowances and bundled benefits.
Consumers therefore should not assume that an existing Rs 299, Rs 349 or other recharge plan will automatically become 12–15% more expensive. Any such changes would need to be announced and implemented separately by the individual telecom operators.
For now, the development is best understood as a fresh warning from the brokerage that India’s telecom pricing cycle could be heading towards another increase, rather than a confirmed Jio, Airtel or Vi tariff hike.
